"In our view, investors have over-reacted to the Aranesp news. Amgen is still an enormously profitable company generating significant cash flow over $2 billion in 2007. Our DCF analysis shows fair value in the $60s. However, noting that perception takes precedence over reality, the stock will probably not achieve full DCF value until after the ODAC meeting in March, and after we get another one or two quarters of ESA stabilization.
Finally, as pipeline product -- specifically Denosumab -- offer data, the market should begin to assign more value to the future. We see fair value at $48 or 11.5x our 2008 EPS of $4.22. We encourage long-term investors to purchase the shares at today's price. We view Amgen as a core holding within the sector."